Stick and Go: Math for Football Nerds Looks at ODU vs. JMU

Stick and go | week 4 primer

By Mike Langston

Let's not pretend. The vibes around Monarch Nation aren't great right now.

ODU is 1-2, the offense has looked lost at times, and the reward for getting through most of non-conference play is a home date with JMU. The same JMU that's 3-0. The same JMU that has owned the Royal Rivalry recently, just won a conference title and went to the College Football Playoff; achievements we'd all love to see ODU make. If you're walking into this weekend expecting the worst, I understand your feelings.

But three weeks is also a fourth of the regular season, and that's enough of a sample to start asking what's actually going on with this team. So I checked into a few advanced stats to see how the Monarchs stack up with the rest of the Sun Belt to better explain what's working, what isn't, and whether there's any reason for hope on Saturday. (Spoiler: there is some. Ever the optimist, I wish there was more but some is better than none.)

First, a word on schedules, because they have not been created equal. Non-conference games get signed years in advance, and nobody can predict what an opponent will look like by the time kickoff arrives. Do you think ODU still agrees to play Indiana on the road in 2025 if it knew the Hoosiers would go from Big Ten cellar dweller to CFP powerhouse? Doubtful.

To account for that, I used ESPN's FPI strength of schedule rankings, which rate the games each team has already played separately from the ones still ahead.

Sun Belt strength of schedule to date, via ESPN FPI

Louisiana Tech has had the toughest road in the league by a mile, with trips to Baylor and LSU. App State has had the easiest, hosting Maine (FCS) and Charlotte (basically FCS) with a trip to ECU mixed in.

Now to this weekend's matchup. ODU's schedule so far ranks 66th nationally, sixth toughest in the conference. JMU's ranks 113th. Only South Alabama and App State have played softer slates. That 3-0 record is legit, but it hasn't come against a gauntlet. Remember that as we go.

Sidenote: All the charts below come from CollegeFootballData.com. If you like digging into this stuff, it's a fantastic free resource and we can't recommend it enough.

Defense

Let's start with the good news, because there is some, and it's on this side of the ball.

Defensive Success Rate tracks how often an opponent's play keeps them on schedule. A play counts as a success for the offense if it gains at least half the yards needed on first down, 70 percent on second, or all of them on third or fourth. Lower is better for a defense.

Defensive PPA (Predicted Points Added) estimates how many points an offense expects to score before and after every snap, based on down, distance, and field position. The difference is what that play was worth. Averaged across every snap, it shows how many points per play a defense gives up. Anything below zero means the defense is taking points away.

Sun Belt Defensive Success Rate and Defensive PPA

See the two logos in the bottom left corner? That's ODU and JMU, and nobody else is close. Both defenses are holding opponents to a success rate of roughly 31 to 32 percent, and they're the only two clearly below zero in Defensive PPA. Meanwhile, Marshall and ULM are letting opponents stay on schedule more than half the time.

JMU has the better PPA, about -0.15 per play to ODU's -0.09. I can't spin that away. But I'll remind you that the Dukes built those numbers against one of the three easiest schedules in the conference, while the Monarchs matched their success rate against a schedule nearly 50 spots tougher nationally. You can make a case that ODU's defense has been the best in the league. And that's exactly what I am doing.

Offense

Okay. Now, let's all take a deep breath, hold it.. keep holding.... and exhale. Doesn't that feel good? Now let's get to the side of the ball that's giving us all a little heart burn.

Offensive Success Rate is the same stat as above, only now higher is better. It measures how often an offense stays on schedule.

Explosiveness looks only at an offense's successful plays and measures how much each one was worth in predicted points. An offense that grinds out four yards at a time will rate lower than one that rips off 40-yarders when things click. Success rate tells you how often an offense wins a snap. Explosiveness tells you how much it gets out of the ones it wins.

Sun Belt Offensive Success Rate and Explosiveness

Find ODU in the bottom right corner, off on its own island. At roughly 33 percent, the Monarchs have the worst success rate in the Sun Belt. If you've been watching, that should not come as a surprise. Too many drives not seeing enough success on first and second, leading to way too many third-and-longs. That lack of success can make it a grind to watch.

But look how far right that logo sits. ODU is also the most explosive offense in the league, and it isn't especially close.

Here's where it gets interesting, though. You'd expect the most explosive offense in the league to be scoring from all over the field. It isn't. ODU's seven offensive touchdowns have averaged about 20 yards, and that number leans heavily on Quinn Henicle's 76-yard run at Virginia Tech. Take that one out and the other six average under 11 yards. Four of the seven came from 13 yards or closer.

So where are the big plays? They're what gets ODU into scoring range. Against Norfolk State, a 38-yard completion to JJ Harrell set up the first touchdown, and a 38-yarder to Leon Haughton Jr. on third-and-19 set up the second. At Virginia Tech, a 34-yard strike to Josh Rodriguez set up the Haughton score. The chunk plays are happening. The problem is everything around them: the drives that stall before a big play can happen, and the ones that get into the red zone and have to grind the last 15 yards against a defense that's been waiting for them.

JMU's offense is operating in a very different manner. The Dukes stay on schedule about 45 percent of the time, one of the better marks in the league, with explosiveness right around the middle. Against FBS teams (Liberty and San Diego State), their five offensive touchdowns averaged under nine yards. They don't have to beat you over the top. They just keep moving the chains until they're standing on your goal line. They are playing good consistent ball through the air and on the ground.

One fair caveat: three games isn't much, big plays come and go, and ODU's offensive numbers were put up against the tougher schedule. But nobody who has watched this team would argue with what the chart shows.

So How Does ODU Win This Thing?

It isn't complicated. It just requires a lot to go right.

1. Make JMU go the long way.

The Dukes don't hit many big plays, which means they have to put together long, patient drives to score. That plays right into the hands of a defense that has been as good as anyone at getting off the field. Every snap JMU needs to reach the end zone is another chance for ODU to get the stop. Get them into third and long, and suddenly the matchup looks different.

2. Hit the big ones, then finish.

ODU's offense has lived on explosive plays, and JMU's defense has the best Defensive PPA in the league, so it doesn't hand those out easily. The Monarchs don't have to fix their efficiency by Saturday, but a 38-yard completion only matters if it turns into seven points. Against a defense this good, settling for field goals after big plays probably isn't enough. If ODU can land two or three shots and cash them in, this can be a 20-17 type of game. If the big plays turn into field goal tries, it could be be a long night for us Monarchs.

3. Stop giving it away.

If there's one number that explains ODU's 1-2 start, it might be this one. The Monarchs have turned the ball over seven times in three games, and two of those went straight back for touchdowns. At Virginia Tech, three lost fumbles helped the Hokies build a big halftime lead. Against ECU, a third-and-18 interception was returned 67 yards for a score in a game ODU lost by three. You don't need an advanced stat to figure out that one.

JMU, meanwhile, has given it away twice all season, and one of those was a muffed punt against Wagner. Against FBS competition, the Dukes' offense has lost one fumble and thrown zero interceptions. They don't beat themselves.

Here's the thing, though. ODU's defense has been taking the ball away almost as often as the offense has been giving it up, with six takeaways in three games, and those have turned into points: a touchdown after a strip-sack against Norfolk State, a field goal after Malachi Harris forced a fumble at Virginia Tech, and Daevon Iles' scoop and score against ECU. The defense is doing its part. If the offense can just stop handing possessions back, ODU is suddenly playing on even terms with a team that has not been prone to making mistakes.

4. Win the hidden yards.

JMU's special teams have shown they can be dangerous. Against Wagner, the Dukes returned three punts for touchdowns, tying the record for most in a game. They also returned a blocked punt for a touchdown. Yes, it was Wagner, but those numbers put JMU at the top of the country in special teams efficiency. ODU's punt coverage has to be sharp all night, because with two defenses this good, a short field might be the easiest points either team gets.

The Bottom Line

On paper, JMU has the edge. FPI ranks the Dukes 59th and the Monarchs 100th, JMU's resume ranks 21st in the country, and they've got the unbeaten record and the recent hardware to back it up. Skepticism from Monarch Nation is understandable.

But football games aren't played on paper, and the numbers here are a little kinder to ODU than the vibes are. The defense has been as good as JMU's against stiffer competition, and it's forcing turnovers. The offense, for all its struggles, has given glimpses of the kind of big-play ability that can flip a close game in a hurry. It just has to finish what those big plays start, and stop giving the ball back.

Is ODU the favorite? No. Is this a game the Monarchs can win if the defense keeps doing its job, the offense protects the football and turns its chunk plays into touchdowns, and the special teams doesn't give short fields to the competition? Absolutely. Conference play starts now, and there's no better way to change the mood around this team than taking the throne in the Royal Rivalry.

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