Stick and Go: A Primer for ODU's trip to Atlanta

Through four games, the Old Dominion Monarchs are 1-3, already matching their loss total from all of last season.

Some of those losses were always possible against programs that invest heavily in football, especially while replacing practically every starter on offense. But I don't think anyone expected it to play out this way. Two things that had become strengths for this program, discipline and the run game, have gone backward in a hurry.

ODU showed steady, year-over-year discipline improvements from 2023 through 2025, reducing penalties per game from 6.5 (tied for 93rd) down to 6.0 (tied for 65th) and cutting penalty yards from 61.1 (113th) to 54.2 (67th). However, that progress has reversed drastically in 2026, with the Monarchs surrendering an average of 8.5 penalties (tied for 116th) and 75.3 yards per game (122nd).

After two straight years of climbing the national discipline rankings, progress in 2026 has fallen off a cliff. You saw it Saturday. ODU had JMU stopped on a three-and-out to open the second half, but an illegal substitution penalty extended the drive, leading to a Dukes field goal. That's what 75 penalty yards a game looks like on the field.

Penalties aren't the only thing that's gone backward.

In 2023, ODU installed the wide splits offense and instantly saw massive improvement in the run game. They ran for 153.5 yards per game, which ranked 73rd in the country. Considering they averaged only 94.6 rushing yards per game in 2022, it was a good start for the new offense. Add a mobile quarterback to the system in 2024 and things took off. ODU jumped to 209.8 yards per game in 2024, 14th in the FBS, and in 2025 they piled up 238.3 yards per game, good for 7th nationally. That's not a running game. That's an identity.

Four games into 2026, ODU is averaging 116.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 120th. To be fair, that average took a major hit against JMU, where nine sacks dragged ODU's official rushing total down to minus-14 yards. But even before Saturday, ODU was averaging about 160 yards per game on the ground. That's closer to where this offense was in its first year than where it was last season, and for a program that built its success on running the ball, that's a problem you can't scheme around forever.

Penalties and a struggling run unit are correctable with good execution and discipline, and improvements in both areas would go a long way toward bucking the trend this program is currently on.

Now, if there's a silver lining to the first four games, it's on the defensive side of the ball, though even that comes with an asterisk. ODU is allowing 329.3 yards per game, which ranks 59th nationally, and opponents are averaging 191.8 passing yards (50th) and 137.5 rushing yards (77th). That's middle of the pack, not elite, but it's been good enough to keep the Monarchs in games, most notably against East Carolina, when the defense held the Pirates to 276 total yards.

The defense has also been taking the ball away, with seven takeaways through four games, including Brandon Crutchfield's interception against JMU that set up a touchdown. The scoring numbers look much worse, at 30 points allowed per game (115th), but that number is a tad misleading as a number of those points were given up by the offense or short fields were handed to the opposition via turnovers and special teams miscues. Non-offensive scores like ECU's 67-yard pick-six and Virginia Tech's fumble return TD directly padded the average, while turnovers and a 72-yard kickoff return against JMU handed the Dukes short fields for 10 easy points.

Where the defense must improve is finishing drives in the red zone. JMU scored on all nine of its red zone trips Saturday, and when the offense keeps sending the defense back onto the field after quick, inefficient drives, those trips start to pile up.

Georgia State is better than a lot of people expected this year, and the numbers back that up. But the matchup itself is closer than the records suggest, and the advanced stats show exactly where ODU can attack. It just requires the Monarchs to play to their strengths and stay out of their own way.

A quick refresher on the stats before we dive in. Unless noted, everything from here on comes from CollegeFootballData.com.

Find ODU on the chart above. It sits all alone on the left side, which is the bad news: no offense in the Sun Belt has been less efficient. But look at how low it sits. By yardage, this defense looks like a middle-of-the-pack unit nationally. By efficiency, it's one of the best in the league. Only JMU and Louisiana have been better at keeping opponents from adding points, and ODU is one of just three teams in the Sun Belt holding opponents to negative EPA per play.

That defense has done its work against a tougher schedule than most. ESPN's FPI ranks ODU's strength of schedule so far 85th nationally. Georgia State's ranks 110th.

Now look at this chart. No offense in the Sun Belt has been more explosive than ODU's, and it isn't close. Put the two charts side by side and you get the 2026 Monarchs in a nutshell: the least efficient offense in the league, and the most explosive. Granted this is an area we highlighted last week but it is worth noting that when ODU wins a snap, it wins it big. The problem has been winning enough of them. 

There's no sugarcoating the offensive numbers. ODU's success rate sits at 31.0 percent, and its EPA per play is -0.100. Nearly a quarter of its snaps (24.3 percent) end in a havoc play, which tells you a lot about the nine sacks against JMU and the drives that died before they could get going.

Georgia State's defense has been solid overall, one of the better units in the Sun Belt by EPA. But it has a clear weak spot on early downs, where it's allowing a 44.9 percent success rate. ODU is succeeding on just 29.9 percent of its standard downs right now, but this is the most forgiving early-down defense it has seen in a while.

The Panthers also give up more on their losing snaps than most of the league. They rank in the bottom half of the Sun Belt in explosiveness allowed, and that's exactly the type of defense the league's most explosive offense wants to see.

The catch is passing downs. Georgia State holds opponents to a 25.6 percent success rate in those spots (think second-and-long and third-and-long), and its defense creates havoc on 17.8 percent of plays. If ODU falls behind the chains, this defense is built to finish the job.

The formula is simple to say and hard to do: win first down, stay ahead of the sticks, and let the big plays come.

This is where the Panthers have made their name. By EPA per play, Georgia State has the most efficient offense in the Sun Belt, staying on schedule 47.9 percent of the time with 0.251 EPA per play. It cashes in too, averaging 4.34 points per scoring opportunity, and it protects the quarterback, allowing havoc on just 10.5 percent of plays.

That's legit. It has also come against the 110th-ranked schedule in the country, while ODU's defense put up its numbers against a schedule 25 spots tougher.

And Georgia State isn't a big-play team. It sits in the middle of the league in explosiveness, which means it wins by moving the chains rather than hitting home runs. JMU brought a similar profile to Norfolk and showed it can still hurt ODU when it finishes drives. But an offense that has to string together long marches gives ODU's defense more chances to do what it does best.

The Monarchs are holding opponents to a 33.9 percent success rate and negative EPA per play (-0.017), and they've been even better on passing downs, where opponents succeed just 28.6 percent of the time. ODU's defense also creates havoc on 16.4 percent of snaps, which is a real advantage against an offense that hasn't faced much pressure.

The number to watch is points per opportunity. ODU allows 3.33; Georgia State scores 4.34. Against JMU, every trip inside the 20 ended in points. If ODU can turn a couple of Georgia State's scoring chances into field goals, or get the stop on third-and-long, the math starts tilting in the Monarchs' favor.

On paper, Georgia State has the edge. It has the better record (3-1 to ODU's 1-3), the more efficient offense, and it's playing at home on homecoming. But ESPN's FPI ranks the Panthers 99th and the Monarchs 110th, which is about as close as two teams get. ODU opened as a 1.5-point favorite in this game and has since moved to +2.5, a four-point swing toward Georgia State. That kind of movement typically means sharp money or significant public action has come in on the Panthers, and it's worth paying attention to. The number doesn't tell you who wins; it tells you who the market has decided to trust more as the week has gone on.

Clean up the negative plays, stay ahead of the chains, and ODU has a real chance to leave Atlanta with its first conference win.

This isn't a mismatch. ODU's defense has been one of the best in the Sun Belt, its offense has shown big-play ability all season long, and Georgia State's defense has holes on early downs that the Monarchs can exploit. The pieces are there. Saturday is about putting them together.