Stick and Go: Half the Equation

Seven games in, we know what needs to improve and what this team can lean on. And with the same issues popping up week after week, I thought this would be a good time to revisit the two areas I said would be major factors into how successful this team could be in 2026: a strong passing game and a defense that creates havoc.

Before the season kicked off, I wrote a preview that zeroed in on those two keys to ODU's success. In it, I used the last five seasons of ODU Football to show that the offense has only thrived when a credible passing game kept defenses from stacking the box. On the other side of the ball, a long-tenured defensive staff under Blake Seiler and strong returning production put the Monarchs in position to keep generating the pressure and takeaways that fueled 2025's program-best 18.6% havoc rate, which ranked 17th nationally. ODU is delivering on one of those two keys, and you can probably guess which. This year's defense is sitting at a 17.9% havoc rate, third in the Sun Belt.

The offense? Not so much.

The passing game hasn’t found enough success to bring true balance to the offense. There have been glimpses, but they’ve been few and far between. ODU ranks 130th in passing offense, 122nd in rushing offense and 137th in total offense. The reason shows up in the havoc numbers. According to The Fourth Quarter, ODU’s offense gives up a havoc play on 20% of its snaps, which ranks 137th out of 138 FBS teams. That means the offense is operating under duress once every five plays, with breakdowns across the field turning every yard into a battle.

Part of the problem is a passing game that ends in sacks far too often, another category where ODU ranks 137th. Coach Rahne has noted that the struggles can't be pinned on one position. Sometimes the line holds up and the QB makes the wrong read or holds onto the ball too long. Sometimes the backs miss their assignment or pick the wrong gap. Sometimes a receiver drops the ball or runs the wrong option route, and sometimes the line simply gets blown off the ball. In short, there's enough blame to go around. The result is an offense averaging just 13.8 points per game in Sun Belt play and a 2-5 record overall. Drives aren't getting off the ground either; The Fourth Quarter has ODU going three-and-out on 30.6% of its possessions, which ranks 128th nationally.

That's not a promising recipe heading into Ruston, and this week's availability report complicates things further. Starting quarterback Quinn Henicle is out, and backup Ryan Huff is listed as questionable, meaning ODU could turn to either Huff or Jaxon Potter on Saturday. Potter has the arm talent to push the ball downfield, which is exactly what this passing game needs to do more consistently. But he isn't the most mobile quarterback, and Louisiana Tech's defense ranks 8th in the country in havoc rate, according to CFBTrack. For an offense that already ranks 137th in sacks allowed, keeping whoever is under center upright will be priority number one. So what has to change? Let's dig in.

Louisiana Tech wins by getting into the backfield, so the simplest way to take that away is to give their pass rush less time to get there. The numbers from PFF show just how wide the gap is between a clean pocket and a collapsing one for both Henicle and Huff.

When either quarterback is kept clean, the ball is out in under two and a half seconds and this passing game looks functional. When pressure arrives, the ball is held nearly a full second longer, and that's when the sacks pile up. Huff has completed just 3 of 13 passes under pressure for 19 yards, and nearly half of the pressures he's faced (48.3%) have ended in a sack.

The quick game has to be the foundation on Saturday. Screens have been the most reliable throw in the offense, with Henicle and Huff combining to complete 14 of 15 attempts, yet screens have accounted for less than 10% of either quarterback's dropbacks. Against a defense that thrives on penetration, screens and throws behind the line of scrimmage turn Louisiana Tech's aggressiveness against it. Short, rhythm throws should be next, getting the ball to playmakers in space and keeping the offense on schedule.

Play action has been a mixed bag. Henicle's best-graded work came off play fakes, which shows the concept can work in this offense. For Huff, though, it has been the biggest source of trouble: 13 of his 14 sacks have come on play-action dropbacks, where he's holding the ball over three seconds on average. Without play action, his average time to throw drops to 2.34 seconds and he's been sacked just once.

That doesn't mean ODU should scrap play action. Huff averages 8.6 yards per attempt off play fakes, and the run game gives the fake real credibility. But the concepts need to be built for quick decisions, with half-field reads, boots that move the launch point and extra protection when the call is a deeper shot. Long-developing play action against an elite havoc defense is how drives get to difficult 3rd-and-longs.

The deep ball is there when the pocket holds. Huff's deep throws have been the best part of his game, completing 4 of 10 passes of 20+ yards for 174 yards, a touchdown and no turnover-worthy plays. The intermediate area has been the danger zone, with Huff completing 4 of 11 passes from 10 to 19 yards with three turnover-worthy plays. Those throws require the longest hold time, which is exactly what Louisiana Tech wants.

The formula is straightforward: live in the quick game, use the run and screens to slow down the rush, and take deep shots only when protection gives the quarterback time. If Potter gets the call, that plan should suit him; he's had the quickest average release of the three in his limited action. Whoever starts, the ball has to come out on time.

While the offense works to find its footing, the defense has held up its end of the bargain. A 17.9% havoc rate, third-best in the Sun Belt, gives ODU a real chance to dictate this game on the other side of the ball. If the Monarchs can force a couple of turnovers and win the field position battle, it takes pressure off whoever is under center and shortens the field for an offense that has struggled to sustain drives. Havoc has been this team's defensive identity in 2026, and on Saturday it needs to be the difference.

Before the season, we said this team would go as far as its passing game and its havoc would take it. Seven games in, half of that equation is holding strong. Saturday in Ruston is a chance for the other half to take a step forward. Go Monarchs!